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Rising temperatures, a melting Arctic and increasing global water and resource scarcity are behind United States President Donald Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st American state.

, accelerated by climate change and a play for global domination of Arctic land, coastline and trade routes that provide access to massive reserves of critical minerals, oil, gas and water.

The second Trump administration is aware of both the new opportunities and risks as , and an ice-free Arctic becomes a possibility.

Land resources

The Arctic is home to a wealth of critical minerals (called ) that can withstand extreme cold and pressure changes, making them essential for the space industry, technology and green energy sectors.

, but this past fall announced a in retaliation for U.S.-imposed trade restrictions.

Significant reserves of critical minerals exist in Canada and Greenland, explaining Trump's desire to tap into their lucrative resources. And it's not just minerals, but massive reserves of oil and gas, both onshore and offshore, are attracting U.S. interest.

Current political tensions between Greenland and Denmark, , mean the timing couldn't be better for brokering a new U.S.-Greenland partnership.

Sea resources

The U.S. Department of Defense tabled a new last summer in light of increasing security threats associated with the opening of the and .

Rights and control over the Northwest Passage remain contested by the European Union and U.S., to the route.

If the U.S. claimed the Northwest Passage and the Panama Canal, it would control both major sea routes accessing North America and would represent a significant power grab. Controlling the passage requires a military and strategic presence within the Arctic, which has historically been .

Canada controls one-third of the Arctic coastline and 25% of the territory, second only to Russia. Climate change is —disconnecting land from ice—and creating the potential for land and resource claims that Canada will be forced to defend.

Water resources

Canada is perhaps the least prepared to defend threats to water security due to the absence of a national policy or framework over water governance.

. Trump has already highlighted the "very large faucet" controlling "."

He is referring to the Columbia River flowing between British Columbia and Washington and Oregon states, the fourth largest river in the U.S. by volume. The Columbia originates in Canada at the Columbia icefield on the B.C.–Alberta border in the Rockies, but 85% of the basin is in U.S. territory.

The river is governed by a treaty originally ratified in 1964 that resulted in Canada losing control of its rights to across the .

The treaty has been under renegotiation for years to update the terms of water-sharing and , including new rights for Indigenous Peoples.

An was reached in December 2024 by the Justin Trudeau–Joe Biden administrations, but Trump's second election has due to his expressed desire to divert water to drought-stricken and fire-plagued California. In his inauguration address, Trump falsely claimed the fires in Los Angeles were still burning ""

The Canada–U.S. agreement allows both nations to control water within their own jurisdictions to address their greatest needs—energy production and water supply. Need in the U.S. will always exceed Canada's simply due to the disproportionate populations in each country.

Canadian vulnerability

Canada's deals with water-sharing and is governed by the International Joint Commission's .

And while Canada is the signatory, control and management of water in Canada falls to provincial and territorial governments. In the absence of a national water policy framework, Canada is vulnerable to foreign interests seeking to access, use and control waters crossing the 8,891-kilometer border between Canada and the U.S. in , including those in the Great Lakes.

Canada would be foolish to think this will stop at the Columbia River, particularly as climate change turns up the heat and fires rage across both Canada and the U.S., for a finite supply of water.

Canadians must recognize that climate change is not only changing our landscape and lifestyle, but also exposing imminent threats to our national security and sovereignty. If they value their land and water—and Canadian identity—they must be prepared to respond collectively and decisively to the surging interest over Canada's resource wealth.

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